“明确信号”：为什么中国似乎要扩大资本外流渠道

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‘Clear signals’: Why China looks set to expand capital outflow channels

As China’s trade surplus grows, signs point to Beijing broadening the opening-up of its capital account amid yuan internationalisation push

Five 100-yuan banknotes are rolled and arranged in a neat row. Photo: SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Alice Li
China’s robust trade surplus will pave the way for Beijing to further open its capital account, as a stronger surplus can give it more leeway to accommodate capital outflows while advancing the nation’s push for yuan internationalisation, according to an economist.
“Given the substantial size of China’s trade surplus, it is fully capable of absorbing current capital outflows,” Ding Shuang, Standard Chartered’s chief economist for Greater China and North Asia, said at a media briefing on Monday.

“The bigger the surplus, the more outflows China can allow, leading to more headroom for broader capital account opening.”

This leeway is supported by China’s resilient export engine, Ding noted, which has continued to surge this year despite disruption to the global economy caused by conflict in the Middle East, generating robust foreign exchange inflows. And the country is well-positioned to maintain this edge, he added.

“China’s research and development investment, as well as policies promoting industrial-tech integration, will continue to enhance its global competitiveness over the long term, allowing the nation to sustain a substantial trade surplus,” Ding said.

“The sizeable trade and current account surplus, in turn, will bolster policymakers’ confidence to further open up the capital account.”

In the first half of the year, China’s exports jumped 17.6 per cent while imports rose 26.6 per cent, according to Customs data. In June alone, the trade surplus expanded to US$125.62 billion, up from US$105.43 billion in May.
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In terms of the broader current account surplus – which included the trade surplus – data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) showed that China’s surplus expanded to US$184.3 billion in the first quarter of this year, up from US$165.4 billion in the same period last year.

Ding added that this solid surplus would also sustain the yuan’s strength in the second half of the year, projecting the currency to trade between 6.75 and 6.85 per US dollar by the end of the third quarter.

Currently, China maintains a restricted capital account to regulate capital flows and mitigate the risk of large-volume capital flight.

Yet, despite Beijing’s stepped-up oversight on unauthorised capital flight this year – including its recent campaign to clamp down on mainland residents opening offshore investment accounts in Hong Kong – Ding said China’s ongoing pursuit of yuan internationalisation meant that a further opening-up of legitimate capital outflow channels was on the table.
“There are already clear signals,” Ding noted, citing remarks by Zhu Hexin, head of SAFE, at the Lujiazui Forum in June, where he announced that a fresh batch of Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor quotas would be issued in autumn this year, allowing domestic institutions to invest in overseas markets via government-approved foreign-exchange quotas.

While broader capital account opening remained the goal, Ding said that its scope could be adjusted during periods of market turbulence, with policymakers potentially introducing temporary macroprudential tools to maintain stability.

“If the pace of opening up moves too fast … and exceeds the government’s capacity for macroprudential management, it could trigger financial risks that ultimately undermine the progress of yuan internationalisation,” he said.

Speaking at the Standard Chartered briefing on the global economic outlook for the second half of the year, Ding said that Beijing may hold back on additional stimulus since there remained significant room for larger fiscal manoeuvres, particularly in infrastructure spending.

Authorities are likely to withhold these measures until annual GDP growth threatens to drop below 4.5 per cent, which represents the bottom of Beijing’s current annual growth target of 4.5 to 5 per cent, he said.