Geopolitics is a game of influence, perception, and deterrence.
地缘政治是一场影响、感知和威慑的游戏。

Some leaders cultivate an image of unpredictability to instill fear, forcing their opponents to tread carefully, unsure of how far they are willing to go.
一些领导者树立了不可预测的形象来灌输恐惧，迫使他们的对手小心翼翼，不确定他们愿意走多远。

This is the essence of the Madman Theory, a strategy made famous by Richard Nixon.
这就是疯子理论的精髓，这是理查德·尼克松 （Richard Nixon） 著名的策略。

But is this tactic still effective today?
Or have modern strategists found a more advanced, more sophisticated way to dominate their adversaries without ever raising their voices?
但这种策略在今天仍然有效吗？或者现代战略家是否找到了一种更先进、更复杂的方法来支配他们的对手，而他们却从未提高声音？

Let’s break down this psychological manipulation technique and explore how it is being pushed to its limits in the 21st century.
让我们分解这种心理纵技术，并探讨它是如何在 21 世纪被推向极限的。

The Madman theory: the art of strategic manipulation
疯子理论：战略纵的艺术

Definition and origins 定义和起源

The Madman Theory is a strategy where a leader pretends to be irrational and unpredictable to create fear and uncertainty in the minds of their adversaries.
The goal is simple:
疯子理论是一种策略，领导者假装不理性和不可预测，在对手的心中制造恐惧和不确定性。目标很简单：

• If your enemy believes you are unstable, they will be too afraid to provoke you.
  如果你的敌人认为你不稳定，他们就会害怕而不敢激怒你。
• If they think you might go to extremes, they will negotiate rather than escalate.
  如果他们认为你可能会走极端，他们会谈判而不是升级。

This approach became famous under Richard Nixon during the Vietnam War.
He and his National Security Advisor, Kissinger, wanted North Vietnam and the Soviet Union to believe that Nixon was capable of anything if they did not cooperate.

This strategy is rooted in psychological warfare and even ancient military philosophy.

The psychology behind the strategy

• Risk aversion – People avoid unnecessary risks when faced with uncertainty.
• The illusion of control – The enemy believes they can avoid disaster by submitting to your demands.
• Cognitive overload – When someone is constantly trying to predict your next move, they become mentally exhausted.
• Perceptual asymmetry – If you seem irrational, your enemy has no solid strategy to counter you.

But while this worked during the Cold War, does it still work today?

 

Is the “Madman Theory” outdated?

The world has changed.
We no longer live in a simple bipolar system where two superpowers play chess.
Today, the game is digital, global, and controlled by data, artificial intelligence, and cognitive warfare.

The problem with the Madman Theory is that it leaves too much room for doubt.

In the 21st century, the most powerful leaders do not want to appear unpredictable.
They want to be unreadable.

From chaos to total opacity

They rely on deep control and strategic invisibility.

Look at some modern examples:

• Donald Trump used a version of the Madman Theory by creating a controlled sense of chaos, forcing his opponents to constantly react to him.
• Vladimir Putin uses strategic ambiguity, sending mixed signals to paralyze his adversaries.
• Xi Jinping takes it even further: he does not act erratic. He acts mysterious. The less the world knows about his true intentions, the more power he has.

In today’s world, the goal is not to be unpredictable, it’s to be unknowable.

The age of Deep Control

The complete control of perception.

The most powerful strategists of the future will not appear crazy.
They will appear impossible to read.

The four pillars of Deep Control

– Information asymmetry – Controlling what your opponent knows, and more importantly, what they think they know.
– Signal overload – Sending contradictory messages to keep adversaries confused.
– Cognitive warfare – Flooding the enemy’s mind with so much conflicting information that they can’t form a clear response.
– Total inaccessibility – Never letting anyone understand your true motives.

This is not about “looking dangerous” anymore.
It is about “never letting them see you coming.”

This is no longer about “playing crazy.”
This is about making sure no one ever sees the full picture.

The end of the Madman Theory = the rise of the “Master Strategist”

The Madman Theory belonged to the 20th century. It worked in a world where communication was slow, where nations were playing a clear game of deterrence.

But today, unpredictability alone is a weakness.

The leaders of the future will not be loud.
They will not be obvious.
They will be unreadable.

The real question is:
– Do you still want to play the “crazy” game?
– Or do you want to be the one writing the rules?

Because in the 21st century, power does not belong to the one who looks dangerous.
It belongs to the one who no one truly understands.