Russia’s refined petroleum exports have adapted to US and EU sanctions by building a diversified network across Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America—minimizing risks and reshaping global energy flows.

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Global Dispersion of Russian Oil Product Exports: A Strategic Hedge Against Sanctions

Despite unprecedented sanctions from the US and EU targeting Russia’s refined petroleum exports—including shadow fleet restrictions, embargoes, and logistical hurdles—Moscow has successfully diversified its oil product trade, establishing resilient footholds across multiple regions.

The export flow, once heavily reliant on European markets, has now pivoted toward Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. This diversification has reduced dependency on any single market, mitigating sanction-related risks and strengthening Russia’s position in the evolving global energy landscape.

Sanctions Evasion and Market Realignment

Recent events underscore the adaptability of Russian oil product logistics. Latin America, traditionally outside Russia’s energy focus, is now emerging as a steady consumer. Indian refiner Nayara Energy, despite facing EU sanctions since July 2024, continues to trade in Russian-derived products, with significant gasoline and diesel shipments documented post-sanctions.

Nayara’s significance is strategic: it owns India’s second-largest refinery in Vadinar, processing 17 million tonnes annually, and is jointly owned by Kesani Enterprises (linked to Trafigura and United Capital Partners) and Rosneft Singapore. This corporate structure underscores how Russian-linked entities maintain operational flexibility despite restrictions.

Shifting Trade Shares

International Energy Agency (IEA) data reveals a marked change in export distribution:

• Asia-Pacific share: from 16% (2021) to 36% (2024)
• Europe’s share: from 59% to 20%
• Middle East share: ~15%, leveraging Fujairah (UAE) as a transit hub replacing Rotterdam Other agencies confirm growing flows into Latin America and North Africa, with the latter acting as a re-export gateway into Europe—largely beyond EU monitoring.

Expert Assessment

According to Alexey Gromov, Chief Energy Director at the Institute of Energy and Finance, refined oil products enjoy a far more diversified market than crude oil. Regions such as:

• Latin America – finding Russian diesel more competitive than US alternatives
• North Africa – reselling Russian products into Europe without significant regulatory pushback
• Middle East – serving both as a consumer and a transit corridor

Turkey remains a critical resale hub, while China maintains direct purchases, albeit in a competitive Asia-Pacific market dominated by its own exports.

Key Market Shares in 2024–2025

• Turkey: ~26% of Russian oil product exports
• China: 13–15% (direct purchases)
• Brazil: ~12%, with imports in April 2025 (€443 million) at the highest since May 2024
• Africa: 15% (up from 7% in 2022)

India’s naphtha imports now come nearly 50% from Russia, displacing the UAE as the market leader—driven by discounts of $14–15 per tonne.

Strategic Implications

The absence of a single dominant buyer provides Russia with a geopolitical and economic hedge against Western pressure. By spreading exports across more than a dozen markets, Russia creates a “thin layer” of dependency globally, making coordinated sanctions less effective.

With much of the transport fleet outside EU, UK, and US jurisdiction, Western powers face significant enforcement barriers. The global oil product market is becoming more fragmented, multipolar, and opaque—a structural shift likely to persist in the medium term.