Anew global survey has revealed sharply contrasting views on the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, with respondents in South Africa and other emerging countries showing optimism, while those in Europe and some of America’s closest allies remain sceptical.

The poll, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in collaboration with Oxford University, surveyed people across 24 countries.

Trump is set to be sworn in as the 47th president of the US on 20 January.

The report identifies five distinct groups based on global perceptions of the multi-millionaire:

• Trump Welcomers: Most pronounced in India (75%) and Saudi Arabia (49%), and popular in Russia (38%), South Africa (35%), China (34%) and Brazil (33%), they see the president-elect as positive for Americans and for world peace.
• Never Trumpers: Predominantly in Europe (28%), the UK (50%) and Sweden (37%), this group views Trump’s win as negative for America and the world.
• Peace Seekers: Found in China (21%), Switzerland (16%) and Ukraine (13%), they believe Trump is better for global peace than for US citizens.
• The Conflicted: Prominent in South Korea, this group sees Trump as harmful to global peace but beneficial to US citizens.
• The Uncertain: Found in Ukraine (20%) and Russia (16%), they have adopted a “cautious wait-and-see approach”.

According to the poll, it is the “middle powers” that are optimistic about Trump’s return to the White House.

“In countries from India and China to Türkiye and Brazil, majorities or pluralities think the return of Trump will be a ‘good thing’ for peace in the world, their country and American citizens.

“This is especially pronounced in India (where 82% see it as a ‘good thing’ for peace in the world; 84% view it as good for ‘their country’ and 85% a ‘good thing’ for American citizens), and Saudi Arabia (57% for peace in the world; 61% for their country and 69% for American citizens).”

The poll also found that Trump pitching himself as a peace-maker regarding Ukraine and the Middle East has found global resonance.

“In India, for example, large majorities (65% for Ukraine; 62% for the Middle East) believe that Trump’s return will make peace more likely.

“This position is also evident in Saudi Arabia (62% for Ukraine; 54% for the Middle East), Russia (61% for Ukraine; 41% for the Middle East), China (60% for Ukraine; 48% for the Middle East) and the US (52% for Ukraine; 44% for the Middle East).

But Ukrainians are more reserved when considering Trump’s ability to bring about peace. The surveyed respondents were divided on the question, with 39% believing his return will help bring peace to their country and 35% saying it is not likely.

The survey found that optimism about Trump’s peace-making capabilities are the weakest in Europe and South Korea.

American allies are “nervous” about Trump 2.0, according to the poll, and “doubt it will bring positive change”.

Only 24% of respondents in the UK and 31% in South Korea believe Trump’s leadership will help resolve the conflict in Ukraine, while optimism in the EU stands at 34%.

The survey underscores a broader recalibration of global power dynamics. While Trump’s “make America great again” rhetoric suggests a revival of US dominance, the poll found most respondents view China, not the US, as the world’s next superpower.

Majorities in South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other countries believe that China will outpace the US in global influence over the next 20 years.

In Europe, Trump’s return appears to deepen divisions. While US-EU relations strengthened during President Joe Biden’s tenure, particularly over Ukraine, the survey shows a decline in the number of Europeans who consider the US an ally — from 31% two years ago to just 22% today.

Amid concerns about a fractured “West”, the survey highlights a potential silver lining for the EU, which is held “in high regard”.

Majorities in South Africa (60%), India (62%) and Brazil (58%) believe the EU’s global influence will grow in the coming decade. This sentiment is shared by many in Türkiye, China and the US.

According to the survey: “The EU is increasingly seen as a critical player in the emerging multipolar world … The bloc is also widely seen as an ‘ally’ or ‘necessary partner’ by respondents of the countries surveyed.

“This view is most pronounced in Ukraine (93% ally or partner, versus 4% rival or adversary), the US (76% ally or partner, versus 9% rival or adversary), South Korea (79% versus 14%).” It was the majority view everywhere else — except for Russia.