The presidential election of March 15, 2026 in the Republic of Congo concluded with the re-election of Denis Sassou Nguesso in the first round, with a provisional score of 94.82% of the votes and an official participation rate of around 84.65% .

Ngodi Etanislas, whose work focuses on electoral issues and political realignments in the Republic of Congo, explains to The Conversation Africa the lessons to be learned from this election.

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What were the main political factors that shaped the outcome of the election?

Denis Sassou-Nguesso’s victory with a “Soviet-style” score of 94.82% of the votes cast is not the result of an open electoral competition. Rather, it is the culmination of a political system built over several decades of power consolidation since the end of the 1997 civil war.

Several key political factors can be put forward to justify this electoral legitimation.

First, there is the long political tenure of Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been in power since 1979 (with an interruption from 1992 to 1997). This omnipresence of more than four decades allows him to ensure absolute control of the country’s political, institutional and security apparatus, making political alternation not only difficult, but systemically unlikely.

Furthermore, the locking down of the electoral process, achieved in particular through control of the state apparatus and election management bodies, contributed to this victory.

Did the divisions within the opposition have an impact on the final result?

The fragmentation of the political opposition is undoubtedly the most decisive factor in the magnitude of the final result of this election. The opposition approached the vote divided, unable to reach a consensus on a single candidate, thus significantly reducing the chances of a democratic transfer of power.

The election was marked by the absence of historical figures in Congolese political life, some of whom are still imprisoned (Jean-Marie Michel Mokoko and André Okombi Salissa), and other leaders who decided to boycott. They felt that the conditions for a free and transparent election were not met. This boycott stripped the competition of any real stakes. It contributed to the first-round victory of Denis Sassou Nguesso, who in 2016 obtained 60.4% of the vote against a strong opposition.

Many observers felt that the six candidates, little known or lacking a real political base, seeking to gain visibility, or better yet, political legitimacy in the eyes of the public for future elections, were no match for Sassou Nguesso. They lacked the financial resources to campaign across the country and build local networks to promote their visions for society.

Finally, the digital blackout, marked by the total shutdown of telephone and internet networks across the entire country on election day, contributed to the opacity of the process. It created an unprecedented informational isolation.

This measure reduced the collective organization and deployment capacity of opposition delegates. It also aimed to limit the spread, on social media, of rumors about ballot stuffing, vote buying, and other politically sensitive or embarrassing content for the incumbent candidate, who feared a high abstention rate.

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How do you assess citizen participation and the role of voters in this election?

Citizen participation was marked by profound electoral disaffection. This was fueled by the opposition boycott and by a sense of the futility of voting among many young people. It also took place within a climate of fear fostered by the repressive environment, notably the operations carried out in early January 2026 by the General Directorate of Presidential Security in the Pool department , as well as the intimidation and repression of activists and opposition members.

The issue of voter participation is at the heart of the controversy surrounding this election.

Two scenarios are possible at this level.

The first scenario involves a mobilization orchestrated by the government, through political and patronage networks and the local structures of the presidential party and its allies. The objective is to stimulate participation in order to legitimize the electoral process and bolster the credibility of the results.

The second scenario is that of a boycott of the election encouraged by the opposition, in order to achieve a low participation, which could provoke political disputes and debates on the legitimacy of the election.

The assessment of the March 15, 2026 election reveals a marked contrast between official figures and observations on the ground, suggesting a more complex citizen participation than initially apparent. The official turnout rate reportedly jumped by nearly 17 percentage points, rising from approximately 67.57% in 2016 – an election marked by the presence of prominent opposition figures – to 84.65% in 2026, despite a widespread boycott.

Four observations can be made regarding citizen participation in this election:

• An electorate of around 2.64 million registered voters, but absent from the polling stations due to low turnout in 6,620 polling stations spread across 4,011 centers throughout the territory;
• A massive anticipated abstention, confirmed by national and international observers, despite the strong citizen mobilization observed during the election campaign;
• A total demotivation of voters due to the absence of significant candidates, the lack of transparency and the locking down of the electoral process, as well as an asymmetrical participation through the strong mobilization of networks close to power and the demobilization of critical voters.
• Limited mobilization, notably due to low turnout in urban centers, marked disinterest among young people and the widespread feeling that “the result is known in advance”.

The role of voters fluctuated between support and coercion. While some supported Denis Sassou Nguesso out of conviction or political loyalty, others voted strategically under the influence of social or administrative pressures, or clientelistic dynamics.

What democratic challenges must Congo Brazzaville face after Denis Sassou Nguesso’s fifth consecutive victory?

This re-election presents the Republic of Congo with major structural challenges. For the country to emerge from political and social stagnation, several democratic reforms are essential. Six major challenges stand out.

• Restoring electoral credibility and the independence of institutions is one of the most sensitive issues. It highlights the shortcomings in electoral governance, the lack of transparency, inclusiveness, and fairness observed in the March 2026 elections.
• The reliability of voter lists, the impartiality of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CNEI), and unequal access to the media pose persistent problems, without effective independent audits. Without a thorough reform of the electoral system, abstention and disengagement, particularly among young people, will continue to grow and weigh on civic engagement and political participation.
• The establishment of a pluralistic political space and a viable opposition is essential for reshaping the Congolese political landscape. In this context, the release of political prisoners and the guarantee of an effective right to opposition are prerequisites for any national reconciliation. The 2026 election took place with an opposition that was largely silenced or had opted for a boycott.
• The protection of fundamental freedoms and civic space in order to address issues related to the resurgence of human rights violations in a context of lack of political dialogue between the regime, the opposition, and civil society.
• The crucial question of succession and transition with a view to maintaining power within the presidential majority and/or ensuring continuity for a new term in 2031. Added to this would be scenarios of dynastic succession within the presidential family.
• Reconciling oil wealth with human development is crucial for a country where nearly half the population lives below the poverty line . The challenge lies in transforming oil revenues into public services (healthcare, education) and opportunities for young people.
• The need to reconnect citizen participation, particularly among young people aspiring to change and civil society, to the political process. Citizen participation remains crucial for the legitimacy of the electoral process.

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What implications could this election have for political stability?

This stability rests on precarious balances, notably the weak legitimacy of the government as perceived by a segment of the population, distrust of the electoral process, and political frustration accumulated over the years. It also relies on the continuity of institutions and elites in power, the absence of abrupt breaks with the past, and the maintenance of internal equilibrium.

The country’s stability currently rests on a fragile balance maintained by a strong centralization of power and the strengthening of institutional control.

The frustration of young people is a particularly worrying indicator. Afrobarometer surveys conducted in the Republic of Congo in 2024 indicate that young people have little confidence in the political system. This also gives the impression of a sense of the futility of voting, the results of which are known in advance, and that the presidential election will change nothing in their daily lives.

There are also frustrations due to problems of economic survival, disenchantment with chronic unemployment and the lack of economic prospects in the country.

The internal battle within the ruling party over the “post-Sassou” era could become the main source of instability if no clear and consensual successor emerges. The internal divisions observed during the party’s ordinary congress in December 2025 demonstrate that succession issues remain central to the reconfiguration of the internal balance of power within the ruling party and the repositioning of elites in the Congolese political landscape.

The presidential election of March 2026 helped to consolidate the power in place, but without resolving the issues related to electoral governance, citizen participation and democratic openness.