China faces a difficult position in Syria as the Assad regime slowly crumble in the wake of the advancement of the Syrian opposition toward Damascus. For years, Beijing has aligned itself with Assad, providing diplomatic and economic support while avoiding direct military involvement. This strategy has allowed China to protect its interests in government-controlled areas and maintain a foothold in post-conflict reconstruction plans. However, the rapid advances of rebel forces now threaten this calculus.

If Assad’s government collapses, China would lose its primary partner in Syria, putting its investments and the safety of its nationals at risk. The potential fall of strategic locations like Homs would cut off access routes to the sea (a principle means of evacuation employed by the PLA in both Libya and Yemen), leaving China dependent on limited evacuation options through Damascus or neighboring countries like Jordan and Lebanon. This poses severe risks for Chinese nations still on the ground.

CChina’s experience in Libya in 2011 serves as a cautionary precedent. During the collapse of the Gaddafi regime, Beijing initially sought to protect its investments and nationals by maintaining ties with the government. However, as the conflict progressed, China abstained in the UN resolution that paved the way for Gaddafi’s ousting, leading to the collapse of conditions across Libya. This left Chinese nationals across the country exposed to the ensuing chaos and forced Beijing to implement a mass evacuation campaign of tens of thousands of citizens. In Syria, the stakes are similar but more pronounced. If China clings to Assad as his regime falters, it risks being seen as complicit in a failing government, potentially alienating emerging power structures and suffering long-term damage to its position in the region.

This reality now seems increasingly likely. Beijing’s past commitments to the principle of non-interference complicate its ability to adapt to the shifting dynamics of the conflict. Its alignment with Assad has tied China to a regime that is increasingly isolated and losing legitimacy. Recent statements from Beijing have reinforced its support for the Syrian government, narrowing its room to maneuver diplomatically. If Assad is overthrown, China could find itself without viable alternatives, limited in its ability to engage with whatever political or military power structure emerges, and forced to contend with the fallout of its calculated but increasingly precarious position.